"Doomsday forecasts: Honest people can disagree"
(April 26, 2013)
"Made in the U.S."
(January 29 , 2013)
Economic Forecasting & Consulting
The Laufenberg Quarterly website provides analysis of economic conditions by Consulting Economist Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., for professionals in the financial industry. At the core of this analysis is the Laufenberg Economic Quarterly (LEQ), which offers a detailed discussion of the outlook for the U.S. economy that is updated four times a year.
LQ Stock Allocation Indicator
(May 2, 2013)
"No complacency please"
"Expecting more than most"
(March 5, 2013)
In the March 2013 issue of the LEQ:
Expecting more than most
Weak economic growth at the end of last year was due to special factors, including a sharp drop in federal defense spending and a larger-than-expected slowdown in inventory accumulation. Neither is expected to be a meaningful drag for all of 2013.
Although fiscal policy continues to be the focus of most discussions about the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy, it seems a bit exaggerated. Clearly both the sequestration already in place and the upcoming deadline for the current continuing resolution later this month will be disruptive to the economy in the near term but neither is expected to have any long-term impact.
The debt ceiling deadline, which is May 1 of this year, could be a different matter. Failure to avert that deadline could be far more problematic for government operations and the economy, especially in the near term but also longer-term. For that reason, I expect the debt ceiling legislation necessary to allow the government to continue to borrow will be enacted between now and then, probably closer to then.
Actually, many analysts were already concerned about the outlook for the economy, especially for consumer spending, because of the tax increases implemented in early January. Although there is some justification for this anxiety, it should not be overstated. The consumer data for January was very positive, while the limited information on the consumer so far for February is mixed.
A few minor changes have been made to the Laufenberg Quarterly (LQ) outlook for 2013; for the most part, it now looks like a tale of two halves—a slower start but a better finish. Despite the early hurdles for the economy, it still is expected to grow at a faster pace this year than last. At the moment, the LQ growth forecast for 2013 is ahead of the consensus as well. Also, inflation is expected to remain benign this year, allowing the Fed to maintain its current policy stance longer
The LQ economic outlook for 2014 is more in line with the consensus, as the expansion is expected to accelerate once again. Another recession is still expected, just not as soon as suggested earlier. Apparently one of the benefits of sluggishly paced recoveries is that they do not burn out as quickly as the fast-starting kind.
Economic Commentary & Perspectives
The website also provides regular commentary on various economic data releases, as well as an occasional comment on markets. This is most often updated during the months between the quarterly.
Occasionally, I will post to the website more detailed reports on various changes in policy, structure, or regulation, focusing on their impact on the economic outlook. The latest special report is a series of four reports on the health care legislation enacted recently.
Persons and firms interested in receiving the Laufenberg Economic Quarterly and other services of Laufenberg Economic Reports should email us at:
The views expressed here reflect the views of Daniel Laufenberg as of the date referenced. These views may change as economic fundamentals and market conditions change. This commentary is provided as a general source of information only and is not intended to provide investment advice for individual investor circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SCHEDULED RELEASE OF KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Apr. 10: 8:30 AM Import and Export Prices (Mar.)
Apr. 12: 8:30 AM Producer Price Index (Mar.); 8:30 AM Retail Sales (Mar.); 9:55 AM Consumer Sentiment (Apr.); 10:00 AM Business Inventories (Feb.) 10:00 AM ISM Non - Mfg. Index (Feb.)
Apr. 16: 8:30 AM Consumer Price Index (Mar.); 8:30 AM Housing Starts (Mar.); 9:15 AM Industrial Production (Mar.)
Apr. 18: 10:00 AM Leading Indicators (Mar.)
Apr. 22: 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales (Mar.)
Apr. 23: 9:00 AM FHFA House Price Index (Mar.); 10:00 AM New Home Sales (Mar.)
Apr. 24: 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders (Mar.)
Apr. 26: 8:30 AM Real GDP (Advance, Q1:13); 9:55 AM Consumer Sentiment (Apr.)
Apr. 29: 8:30 AM Personal Income and Outlays (Mar.)
Apr. 30: 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index (Q1:13); 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
May 1: 10:00 AM ISM Mfg. Index (Apr.); 10:00 AM Construction Spending (Mar.); 2:00 PM Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr.)
May 2: 8:30 AM Productivity and Costs (Q1:13); 8:30 AM International Trade (Mar.)
May 3: 8:30 AM Employment Situation (Apr.); 10:00 AM ISM Non‐Mfg. Index (Apr.); 10:00 AM Factory Orders (Mar.)
May 7: 3:00 PM Consumer Credit (Mar.)
May 9: 10:00 AM Wholesale Trade (Mar.)
May 13: 8:30 AM Retail Sales (Apr.)
May 14: 10:00 AM Import and Export Prices (Apr.)
May 15: 8:30 AM Producer Price Index (Apr.); 9:15 AM Industrial Production (Apr.)
May 16: 8:30 AM Consumer Price Index (Apr.); 8:30 AM Housing Starts (Apr.)
May 17: 9:55 AM Consumer Sentiment (Prel., May); 10:00 AM Leading Indicators (Apr.)
May 22: 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales (Apr.)
May 23: 9:00 AM FHFA House Price Index (Apr.); 10:00 AM New Home Sales (Apr.)
May 24: 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders (Apr.)
May 28: 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence (Apr.)
May 30: 8:30 AM Real GDP (Prel., Q1:13); 8:30 AM Corporate Profits (Q1:13)
May 31: 8:30 AM Personal Income and Outlays (Apr.); 9:55 AM Consumer Sentiment (Final, May)