Economic Forecasting & Consulting

The Laufenberg Quarterly website provides analysis of economic conditions by Consulting Economist Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., for professionals in the financial industry. At the core of this analysis is the Laufenberg Economic Quarterly (LEQ), which offers a detailed discussion of the outlook for the U.S. economy that is updated four times a year.

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August, 2010 Quarterly Report
The Recovery Continues—Really!
- - - but a less robust US economy longer term

In the August 2010 issue of the LEQ:

The Recovery Continues—Really!

The U.S. economy continued to recover in the second quarter of 2010, albeit at a much slower pace than anticipated a few months ago and probably at an even slower pace than initially reported. On the other hand, real growth in the first quarter was revised upward, offsetting some of the shortfall in the second quarter and bringing the average growth rate for the first half of 2010 in line with my expectation just prior to the release of the advance estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Apparently, the consensus has allowed the second-quarter slowdown to influence their outlook for the economy over the remainder of 2010 and, as such, has become too pessimistic. After all, despite slower-than-expected real GDP growth, real gross domestic purchases grew at a very rapid pace in the first half, suggesting that final demand for goods and services was very strong so far this year but that much of that demand was satisfied by imports. Given the still elevated level of excess capacity around the world, inflation will remain benign for the remainder of this year and all of next year. This means that any action by the Federal Reserve to make monetary policy less accommodative will be very slow to happen and very gradual when it does. Indeed, the fate of scheduled changes in the tax code at the end of this year may modify the pace of real growth late this year and early next year, as well as influence the timing of any shift in the Fed’s policy stance.

A less robust US economy longer term

The doomsayers probably are too pessimistic about the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy, but they may be right about a less robust economy over the long run. This conclusion is based on several factors, all of which suggest more rather than less inflation over the next decade.

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Economic Commentary

The website also provides regular commentary on various economic data releases, as well as an occasional comment on markets. This is most often updated during the months between the quarterly.

Special Reports:

Occasionally, I will post to the website more detailed reports on various changes in policy, structure, or regulation, focusing on their impact on the economic outlook. The latest special report is a series of four reports on the health care legislation enacted recently.

Persons and firms interested in receiving the Laufenberg Economic Quarterly and other services of Laufenberg Economic Reports should email us at:

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The views expressed here reflect the views of Daniel Laufenberg as of the date referenced. These views may change as economic fundamentals and market conditions change. This commentary is provided as a general source of information only and is not intended to provide investment advice for individual investor circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results.